Tau qhov twg los: reneweconomy.com.au
Cua thiab hnub ci txuas ntxiv ua tus kav zoo tshaj plaws raws li Australia cov khoom pheej yig tshaj plaws ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tshiab, nrog rau qhov kev ntsuam xyuas zaum kawg los ntawm CSIRO tau lees paub tias cov khoom siv txuas ntxiv mus txuas ntxiv tau zoo dua cov thee thiab roj.
Hnub Friday, lubCSIRO tau tshaj tawm tsab kev sib thamntawm qhov tseeb iteration ntawm nws cov kev ntsuam xyuas GenCost txhua xyoo, uas suav thiab ua cov phiaj xwm qhov kev cia siab ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob los ntawm ntau yam ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob.
Daim qauv ntawm 2021-22 tsab ntawm GenCost tau lees paub qhov xwm txheej ntawm cua thiab hnub ci raws li qhov pheej yig tshaj ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tshiab, txawm tias tom qab cov nqi khaws cia thiab kev nqis peev hauv network tau muab rau hauv tus account thiab, qhov tseem ceeb, nyob rau theem siab ntawm kev rov ua dua tshiab.
Raws li cov lus hauv qab no piav qhia, thiab qhov tseem ceeb los ntawm CSIRO, txawm tias nyob rau theem ntawm 90 feem pua cua thiab hnub ci hauv kab sib chaws, cov nqi hluav taws xob - suav nrog kev cia thiab xa mus - tseem tseem ceeb hauv qab fossil fuels, thiab tsuas yog ib feem ntawm nuclear zog.
Qhov kev tshawb pom no tseem ceeb heev raws li qhov tsis ntev los no tau nthuav tawm cov qauv ntawm 2022 Integrated System Plan, tsim los ntawm Australian Energy Market Operator, kwv yees Australia cov phiaj xwm tseem ceeb nce mus txog qib cua thiab hnub ci los ntawm nruab nrab xyoo 2030, yog tias tsis ntxov dua.
Kev ntsuam xyuas GenCost kwv yees tias cov nqi hluav taws xob siv hluav taws xob siv hnub ci PV tam sim no nyob hauv thaj tsam ntawm $ 44 txog $ 65 ib MWh, thaum cua fais fab nqi ntawm $ 45 txog $ 57 toj ib MWh, nyob ntawm qhov loj thiab qhov chaw.
Qhov no piv rau qhov kwv yees theem ntawm tus nqi hluav taws xob tshiab dub ntawm $ 87 thiab $ 118 toj ib MWh thiab roj tsim nqi ntawm $ 65 thiab $ 111 ib MWh. Cov nqi no tau cuam tshuam txog 'baseload' siv cov ntaub ntawv thiab 40-80 feem pua ntawm cov peev txheej, nrog rau cov nqi rau cov tshuab hluav taws xob ntau dua vim kev siv qis dua.
Qhov tseem ceeb, CSIRO cia siab tias cov nqi ntawm cov roj fossil thev naus laus zis yuav nyob twj ywm tsis hloov pauv hauv cov ntsiab lus tiag tiag hauv peb lub xyoos tom ntej. Nyob rau hauv sib piv, cov nqi cua, hnub ci thiab kev koom ua ke technologies xws li roj teeb cia yuav poob mus ntxiv raws li lawv cov technologies txuas ntxiv mus.
CSIRO hais tias cov nqi sib koom ua ke rau kev rov ua dua tshiab tseem qis, ntxiv ib ncig ntawm $ 10 txog $ 15 ib megawatt-teev rau tus nqi cua thiab hnub ci. Cov nqi no suav nrog kev nqis peev ntxiv hauv kev khaws cia hluav taws xob, kev tsim kho vaj tse network thiab cov kev pabcuam hauv kev pabcuam xws li synchronous condensers.
Muab cov txiaj ntsig tseem ceeb ntawm cov phiaj xwm cua thiab hnub ci uas twb muaj lawm, cov nqi kev sib koom ua ke no tsis tiv thaiv kev rov ua dua tshiab los ntawm cov nqi pheej yig dua tag nrho piv rau cov fossil roj hloov.
Qhov kev ntsuam xyuas qhia tau hais tias cua thiab hnub ci zoo li yuav tuav tau lawv qhov tseem ceeb hauv kev nqis peev tshiab, nrog rau qhov sib txawv ntawm cov khoom siv dua tshiab thiab cov fossil fuels npaj yuav nthuav dav rau peb lub xyoos tom ntej.
CSIRO qhia tias tsuas yog qhov xwm txheej uas cov tshuab hluav taws xob tuaj yeem sib tw ntawm tus nqi yog ib qho uas cov nqi roj poob, qhov project yog tiv thaiv los ntawm ib qho kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev hloov pauv huab cua, suav nrog kev lees paub tias tsis muaj nqi rau cov pa hluav taws xob hauv tsev cog khoom puas tau levied ntawm fossil fueled generators.
& quot; Cov thev naus laus zis ze tshaj plaws yog cov nqi qis ntawm lub tshuab hluav taws xob sib xyaw ua ke uas tuaj yeem phim cov nqi siab ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob sib txawv nrog cov nqi sib koom ua ke. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov qis qis 2030 roj sib xyaw ua ke cov nqi kev xav yuav nyuaj kom ua tiav," tsab ntawv ceeb toom hais tias.
& quot; Nws yuav tsum tsis muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm huab cua nyob rau theem nyiaj txiag (txawm tias 25-xyoo tsim lub neej txuas ntxiv tshaj li qhov zero emission lub hom phiaj ntawm feem ntau lub xeev), tus nqi roj tsuas yog qis dua $ 6 / GJ thoob plaws lub sijhawm ntawd thiab muaj peev xwm ua tau. ntawm 80 feem pua hauv ib qho system nrog kev sib koom ua ke ntawm lub zog los ntawm zero marginal nqi txuas ntxiv."
Tsis tas li ntawd, CSIRO pom tias cov nqi ntxiv ntawm carbon capture thiab cia technologies rau kev tsim hluav taws xob yuav luag ob npaug ntawm cov nqi ntawm cov thee thiab roj.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm GenCost kwv yees tias ntxiv CCS rau lub tshuab hluav taws xob dub ua rau nce tus nqi nce mus rau ntawm $ 162 thiab $ 216 ib MWh, thaum cov nqi hluav taws xob nce mus txog $ 107 thiab 170 ib MWh.
Qhov kev ntsuam xyuas qhia tau hais tias lub zog hluav taws xob nuclear txuas ntxiv mus ua ib qho kev xaiv kim tshaj plaws hauv Australia, nrog rau CSIRO ceeb toom qhov tsis paub tseeb ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob vim tias tsis muaj chaw ua haujlwm hauv Australia.
CSIRO tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam hluav taws xob Paul Graham tau hais tias CSIRO nrhiav kev tawm tswv yim los ntawm cov neeg muaj feem cuam tshuam txog kev tshuaj ntsuam thawj zaug, ntxiv tias lub koom haum tshawb fawb xav kom nws cov kev soj ntsuam kom nrawm nrog kev hloov pauv sai hauv kev lag luam hluav taws xob.
& quot; Lub zog hluav taws xob tau hloov pauv sai heev yog li peb xav tau kev hloov kho tshiab zoo li daim ntawv tshaj tawm no kom ntseeg tau tias peb txoj kev npaj ua raws li kev kwv yees tus nqi tshiab tshaj plaws," Graham hais tias.
& quot;Nws' kuj tseem ceeb heev uas cov neeg koom nrog muaj lub sijhawm los tshuaj xyuas cov kev hloov pauv kom ntseeg tau tias lawv ua raws li kev lag luam ncaj qha."
Thawj zaug, CSIRO tau suav nrog kev kwv yees ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob hluav taws xob, qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob txuas ntxiv.
Qhov kev kwv yees pom cov nqi hluav taws xob muaj peev xwm poob los ntawm ntau npaum li ob feem peb ntawm qib tam sim no nyob rau kaum xyoo tom ntej thiab ntau dua 90 feem pua los ntawm 2050.
Qhov kev ua tiav zoo li no yuav ua rau pom cov nqi txo qis uas twb tau ua tiav hauv hnub ci, cua thiab roj teeb thev naus laus zis uas ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv tag nrho ntawm cov thev naus laus zis huv huv los ua kev sib tw ntawm tus nqi.
AEMO' tus thawj tswj hwm pab pawg rau kev kwv yees, Nicola Falcon, tau hais tias qhov kev rov ua dua tshiab ntawm GenCost tsab ntawv ceeb toom yuav pab rau tus neeg teb xov tooj' txoj kev npaj phiaj xwm yav tom ntej.
& quot; Lub CSIRO' cov txheej txheem los saib xyuas, sab laj thiab hloov kho cov txheej txheem thev naus laus zis tus nqi yog qhov tseem ceeb heev uas peb npaj rau kev hloov pauv sai ntawm NEM," Falcon hais.
& quot; Sab ntug dej hiav txwv, piv txwv li, muaj peev xwm zoo vim muaj peev txheej zoo, tab sis kev lag luam tseem tsis tau muaj pov thawj hauv Australia. Yog tias cov nqi thev naus laus zis txuas ntxiv taug qab, raws li tau hais tseg hauv lub xyoo no' GenCost, ces cov thev naus laus zis no tuaj yeem ua lub luag haujlwm ntau dua rau yav tom ntej Integrated System Plans."
CSIRO yuav nrhiav kev tawm tswv yim los ntawm cov neeg koom nrog hauv tsab ntawv sib tham, nrog rau qhov kawg version ntawm 2021-22 GenCost tsab ntawv ceeb toom yuav tsum luam tawm los ntawm nruab nrab-2022.
